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One more piece of the puzzle -- The SuperDuper! log doesn't show it starting at 4:14, it shows it starting at 4:58, which is when I logged on. Since it was active, I had assumed it had started at the scheduled time and paused, but it looks like it started when I logged on.
For what it's worth, when I upgraded, I deleted the existing SuperDuper! schedule entry and re-entered it.
Nothing jumps out at me in the macOS system.log file.
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